Analysis
Zelensky wants a deal, but the optimism of a plan has returned to status quo
The European leaders most committed to the so-called “just peace” – meaning one that “does not give in to Russian demands” – have found a way to rally around opposition against the initial 28-point plan.
During the Tuesday talks with U.S. emissaries in Abu Dhabi, “the Ukrainians have agreed to the peace deal” proposed by the U.S., with only “some minor details to be sorted out,” according to an anonymous U.S. official and subsequently confirmed in the evening by the Ukrainian president himself. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused to comment, dismissing the reports as an “information frenzy.”
Rivers of ink have been spilled regarding the U.S. peace plan – amended in Geneva, re-discussed in the United Arab Emirates over the last two days and reshuffled on Tuesday by the “Coalition of the Willing.” The “details” in question are actually the same pillars on which, in these four years of war, it has been impossible to find common ground. And the talk about an imminent meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump to resolve the issues still on the table – “by the end of November,” the Ukrainians hope, while Washington says “not before the signing” of a deal – looks like an attempt to buy more time.
Little likely remains of the 28-point text that included Ukraine giving up territories currently under Russian occupation, the handover of the remaining part of Donetsk not yet conquered, the de facto U.S. recognition of Russian sovereignty over these regions, the reduction of the Ukrainian army to 500,000 soldiers and other economic, political and military conditions. At the very least, the points that led the Kremlin to call it “a very good basis for talks” seem to be gone. In fact, it appears we have returned to the status quo of a week ago, even though all actors involved – from Brussels to Washington – are describing the progress as “encouraging.”
Trump went so far as to state: “In the hopes of finalizing this Peace Plan, I have directed my Special Envoy Steve Witkoff to meet with President Putin in Moscow and, at the same time, Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll will be meeting with the Ukrainians.” Everyone is eager to talk, except Moscow. “Russia could reject a modified version of the U.S. peace plan if it does not meet Moscow’s long-standing demands,” declared Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The official claimed that the first version of the plan was actually a faithful rendering of what Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump had decided during their meeting in Alaska on August 15, and that the Kremlin will not accept the removal of the “spirit and letter of Anchorage.”
Nevertheless, a glimmer of hope for negotiations remains open. The Russians claim to have received only the first proposal and are awaiting the “interim version,” which was drafted with the participation of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and representatives of the EU and Ukraine in Geneva. It seems there is room for discussion on this draft.
However, despite the openness in recent days to a greater European role in the process, French President Emmanuel Macron raised the level of tensions once more from afar on Tuesday. He stated that peace “must not be a capitulation” that would give Russia carte blanche to continue toward other European countries, adding that “no one can say on behalf of the Ukrainians what territorial concessions they are willing to make” and that “it is up to Europeans to decide on Russian assets.” The Russians called Macron’s statements “dreams,” and in their view Europe already had its chance to play a role in the peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian conflict but “has failed in every respect” ever since 2014. Meanwhile, in Abu Dhabi, U.S. representatives met separately with the Russians and Ukrainians; it is significant that this time Kyiv was represented by Kyrylo Budanov, the powerful head of military intelligence (GUR).
The European leaders most committed to the so-called “just peace” – meaning one that “does not give in to Russian demands” – have found a way to rally around opposition against the initial 28-point plan. On Tuesday, they met via videoconference in the “Coalition of the Willing” format, together with representatives from Brussels, Rubio and Zelensky. The Ukrainian leader, in addition to confirming his intention to “move forward with the agreement supported by the U.S.,” urged European leaders to “develop a framework” for sending a “reassurance force” to Ukraine. This is another scenario that had been categorically ruled out by Moscow and the faction in the U.S. administration that was responsible for the first draft of the proposed deal. Zelensky also insisted on the need for “defense support, progress on security guarantees and action on frozen Russian assets.”
Secretary Rubio didn’t mince words, stating that security guarantees “are a fundamental component” of any peace deal and that both Ukraine and Russia “need proposals written on paper” to determine the feasibility of any agreement. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer called the deployment of a “multinational force for Ukraine” “vital” to ensure Kyiv receives “robust security guarantees” after the signing of any potential agreement. Starmer was referring – without naming it explicitly – to the Franco-British contingent that the two states have been preparing for some time, and which was reviewed at Mont Valérien during Zelensky’s last visit to France.
Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the war continues. Pokrovsk has not yet fallen, but fighting continues unabated all around the Donetsk town, which has been under siege for 15 months. The Russians have once again struck Kyiv with long-range weapons, causing at least six deaths and a dozen injuries. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russian forces launched “22 missiles of various types and over 460 drones,” most of them targeted at the capital. “Putin gave his terrorist response to the United States' and President Trump's peace proposals,” declared Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiga.
Originally published at https://ilmanifesto.it/zelensky-dice-si-allaccordo-ue-entusiasta-mosca-fredda on 2025-11-26