Analysis
Zelensky’s make-or-break moment in Washington
Zelensky will have to put on an obliging face, beguiling the tycoon with all his savoir faire, to the point of giving him the impression of being docile and submissive towards the White House's plans.
Friday is the day everyone in Ukraine has been waiting for: Zelensky will finally meet with Donald Trump, the man who brought Moscow back from the ranks of the untouchables to the center of world diplomacy. Everyone knows that it won’t be an easy meeting, despite the fact that the terms of the Rare Earths Agreement are theoretically already agreed upon, and that the Ukrainian president won’t have anything like the reception he was given during the Biden era.
But it is a mandatory – indeed, vital – step for Kyiv. Zelensky will have to put on an obliging face, beguiling the tycoon with all his savoir faire, to the point of giving him the impression of being docile and submissive towards the White House's plans. In the condition in which Ukraine finds itself, this first agreement has become essential to be able to continue fighting unhindered until the start of the real negotiations.
There is no room for error: in recent weeks, every sharp response to Washington's disproportionate claims has triggered insults from Trump (denied by the latter on Thursday: “Did I say that? I can’t believe I said that,” Trump said about his previously calling Zelensky a “dictator”) and a more unfriendly attitude. U.S. media has reported that the meeting is seen by Trump as a kind of nuisance, and according to French broadcaster BFM, the U.S. side actually cancelled it on Wednesday. When Zelensky had said that the deal could still blow up, an unnamed Republican source had let it be known that the Ukrainian leader might as well stay home. The French TV station claims that the tycoon's men had already called Kyiv to say that the visit was canceled.
At that point, Zelensky reportedly called Macron, who then phoned Trump to intercede, acting as “a guarantor.” Whether or not Macron actually played the role of middleman, it is plausible to assume that Trump feared Zelensky might make him look bad, perhaps announcing from U.S. soil that the deal was off and thus taking his revenge for the insults during recent weeks. The other, far worse scenario is that Ukraine was of such low regard in the view of the U.S. administration that it was unnecessary to meet with its president and it would suffice to send an official to collect the signature on the treaty. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are saying they are confident about reaching a “framework agreement,” a multi-step plan that at some point would include the famous security guarantees that Kyiv says are crucial to prevent a new Russian invasion in the future.
In the end, the meetings that truly matter at this point are between the U.S. and Russia. Thursday saw the second meeting between the two countries' delegations, this time in Turkey. According to the U.S. Secretary of State, there were no discussions on Ukraine or security issues, only on bilateral relations at the diplomatic level. The head of the Russian delegation, Foreign Minister Lavrov, made it clear that the focus was on “the systemic problems that have accumulated as a result of the illegal activities of the previous (U.S.) administration.”
According to the TASS news agency, the talks lasted for a full six and a half hours, but both delegations walked away without putting out any statements. At the same time, Turkish President Erdogan announced that he was ready to send a peacekeeping force to Ukraine. In the evening, Trump reiterated that he was “confident” that a ceasefire would be reached soon, and also renewed some of the sanctions on Russia for another year. Putin appeared unperturbed: “The first contacts with the new US administration inspire certain hopes … There is a mutual dedication to work towards restoring interstate relations.”
Originally published at https://ilmanifesto.it/il-giorno-di-zelensky-alla-casa-bianca-mentre-usa-e-russia-trattano-in-turchia on 2025-02-28