Better the safe bet or the unknown? According to international analysts, this is Beijing’s dilemma toward the American elections.
According to a recent survey, and contrary to what is claimed by many Western media outlets, the Chinese do not like Donald Trump; indeed the billionaire would be seen as a “danger” for China should he become president.
If “The Donald” really did implement an isolationist policy in the United States — he has repeatedly spoken out against the Chinese trade policies — Beijing fears a worsening of economic relations, although there are exceptions. According to Daniel Bell, a detail-oriented student of contemporary China, the elite of the Communist Party, although it has not given any voting instructions, would be more in favor of Trump than Clinton.
The reasons would be internal, rather than international. According to these Party “reformers” (or supposed ones), a possible protectionist policy by Trump would push China even further to seek solutions to its dependence on exports. In particular, it would signal the time to finally intervene in state-owned companies. Something like what happened with China’s entry into the WTO when large numbers of workers were fired from the state production units.