Analysis
The real ‘wave’ is winning: Weapons, migrants and corporate welfare
The second term of Ursula von der Leyen in no way represents a strengthening of European integration along even vaguely progressive lines. Instead, it testifies to the completely subordinate position of the Socialists, Liberals and Greens to the policies of the European People's Party.
The notion that Ursula von der Leyen's reelection to the presidency of the European Commission would be a fraught and perilous undertaking, threatened by legions of turncoats at the secret ballot, was always a colorful story meant to conceal the candidate's brazen opportunism. And her overtures toward the right, or at least its most Atlanticist representatives, with the support of EPP president Manfred Weber, were more than just a blackmail tool against the old majority which included the Social Democrats and Liberals.
They were backed by the substance of a sincerely held, concrete and politically savvy position, based on three very clear points: the massive rearmament of Europe and the development of its war industry, the gradual restriction of the right to asylum and the rejection of migrants thanks to the well-paid assistance (both economic and political) offered to the Maghreb regimes, and the downsizing of the Green Deal in deference to the interests of corporations and particular economic sectors, supported almost everywhere by the European right-wingers.
Her overtures towards the right did not go as planned, but only because the “black wave” at the European elections in June, while notable, was not enough to fundamentally change the political balance in the Strasbourg Parliament. And also because the Socialists and Liberals, and to some extent the Greens, have taken positions on these issues that are not very far from those of the EPP.
Thus, the first two of the above mentioned points remain at the heart of Ursula von der Leyen's plans for her second term – in good agreement, it turns out, with the leadership of the Socialists, Liberals and Greens, who on the issue of migrants are willing to go along with emphatic rhetorical reassurances on human rights, even though they are being regularly trampled before everyone's eyes, and are happy with seemingly unconditional support for Kyiv with the lack of any autonomous geopolitical or diplomatic position. In essence, the EU doesn’t have any ideas on how it will coexist with its troublesome neighbor to the East in the future – and everyone is just fine with that.
However, on the third point, in order to secure the votes of the Green group (although significantly diminished by a disastrous election result), she needed to give a few more reassurances and make some promises on ecological transition policies, which, in any case, will remain “pragmatic,” as she stressed. It’s important to clarify the current meaning of this adjective: it is not the opposite of “ideological” or “pie-in-the-sky,” but rather denotes something that corresponds to the existing power relations and dominant interests.
The Greens – first of all the German ones – have been calling themselves “pragmatists” for quite some time to defend their role in government. However, it appears that the Green electorate, especially the youth, have not appreciated this particular kind of “evolution.” In any case, it does take a certain kind of courage to line up behind von der Leyen – ambitious, aristocratic and willing to turn whichever way the wind blows – and a fair amount of nerve to boast of having been a bulwark against the influence of the far right in European politics.
The truth is that the current right wing – especially the Italian one, into which von der Leyen had invested the most – would have entailed excessive political costs for the EPP and its candidate if it had contributed in any way to the EC president’s re-election. Accordingly, Ursula von der Leyen was clever enough to figure out a path without it. However, even though the more “national-European” component of the far right is now in an uncomfortable position, that doesn’t mean it won’t be able to make itself very useful in a push-and-pull with the EU government on the more discriminatory or aggressive aspects of its policies, after abandoning the banner of anti-European nationalism in the hands of Orbán and co.
Accordingly, it is important not to misunderstand the political significance of this second term of Ursula von der Leyen as Commission president, which in no way represents a strengthening of European integration along even vaguely progressive lines. Instead, it testifies to the completely subordinate position of the Socialists, Liberals and Greens to the policies of the European People's Party, strongly tilted towards the right, and especially to the interests it most directly represents. The results of the European elections are the consequence of this subordination, which has altered the profile of these political forces, kicking off and then accelerating their decline.
Originally published at https://ilmanifesto.it/il-vestito-nuovo-della-destra-europeista on 2024-07-19