Analysis
The new European Union is pro-business, anti-immigration and frugal
The European Commission is further to the right, especially on immigration and defense, with the growth of Eastern countries in prominence. The shift of power is moving away from ‘old Europe.’
The new Commission is much more right-wing than its predecessor, a situation that is a direct consequence of the makeup of the governments of the 27 member states. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has adapted seamlessly to this change: she will objectively increase her personal power as a representative of the EPP, also thanks to the weakness of the two “big players” in the Council: France, in the midst of a political crisis, and Germany with the Scholz government threatened by the rise of the far right.
It is a fluid Commission, with roles that are amorphous, fragmented and intersecting, where openness can be found right next to closure, pro-Europeanism right next to sovereignism. The new Commission's task will be to respond to the anxiety about the looming risk of “slow agony” pointed out by the Draghi report: the choice to balance political affiliations, always putting a pro-business watchdog to temper any social inclinations, signals a willingness to sacrifice rules and social protection on the altar of regaining competitiveness.
The clearest example is the climate transition. The climate area is balanced between the Spanish Socialist Teresa Ribera on Transition, a tried-and-true fighter who was also a UN negotiator on ecology, and the Dutch Wopke Hoekstra on Climate, a stiff former Finance Minister from the “frugal” camp. A Danish Social Democrat, Dan Jørgensen, gets Energy, and the Circular Economy portfolio goes to Sweden's Jessika Roswall (Moderate Party), a second choice for Stockholm. The portfolios devoted to spending are under the control of Poland's Piotr Serafin, a representative of the largest EPP-led country and a very popular figure with the “frugals,” who will have a direct line to Ursula von der Leyen for their agenda to keep the purse strings tight.
The East is clearly growing in prominence, and with this shift of the balance of power away from the “old Europe,” the first certainty is the confirmation of support for Ukraine: together with Kaja Kallas (Estonia, former prime minister and onetime candidate for NATO Secretary), who replaces Josep Borrell on Foreign Policy – and will likely speak out less on behalf of the Palestinians – there is another representative of the East, Lithuanian Andrius Kubilius, who gets Defense, a new portfolio created because of the ongoing war (but one which doesn’t yet have a leading importance at this point). Finland's Henna Virkkunen is on Sovereignty, Security and Demography, together with a vice-presidency – a figure very close to von der Leyen. The Enlargement portfolio (which will cover the Western Balkans, but also Moldova and Ukraine) will go to Slovenia's Marta Kos (who had to wait for a delayed confirmation from Ljubljana), while Croatia's Dubravka Suica will get the new “Mediterranean” portfolio, involving diplomatic relations across the Mediterranean but also with competencies on immigration.
However, the control of migration flows has been entrusted to Austrian hawk Magnus Brunner on Internal Affairs and Migration. Von der Leyen was intent on getting him for “strengthening our borders,” and he was quick to boast that “in Austria, we are winning the battle against illegal immigration,” not ruling out taking inspiration from the British model of deportations. It is no coincidence that immigration is the field of choice for experimenting with shifting the Commission's axis even further to the right, in the direction of Giorgia Meloni's Conservatives.
On paper, the South has its share of representation: Cohesion and Reforms goes to Italy (while Fitto is a member of the ECR, a party that has always opposed reforms); Spain's Socialist Ribera gets an important role on the climate transition, and Financial Services goes to Portugal's Maria Luís Albuquerque – a former finance minister who became known for welfare cuts and the imposition of severe austerity in 2013-15 and who will now be tasked with the development of the capital market.
France, which traditionally bridges the gap between North and South, got Prosperity and Industrial Strategy for Stéphane Séjourné, Macron's close aide (but lost the Tech portfolio, which was held by Thierry Breton and now will pass to Finland's Virkkunen). Séjourné is also one of the vice-presidents, and she will have to deal with Poland's Serafin and von der Leyen herself. The latter did try to have equal gender representation in the new Commission, but eventually settled at 40 percent women, despite getting some countries, especially small ones, to change their proposals. In the end, the balance is somewhat restored by the four vice-presidencies for women and two for men: three of the former Vice Presidents are out, including Slovakian Maros Sefcovic, who instead gets the important post of Trade, and Valdis Dombrovskis, who gets Economy and Productivity and will have to share control over the progress and conclusion of the NextGenerationEu program with Fitto.
The latter’s key position is meant to ensure he will calm the anxieties of the markets and those of the “frugal” camp, and with him it will be tougher for countries subjected to the excessive deficit procedure to negotiate some flexibility. Von der Leyen has also managed to get rid of the most independent-minded and cumbersome of the old commissioners: France's Thierry Breton (who on Monday tendered his immediate resignation), Luxembourg's Nicolas Schmit and Italy's Paolo Gentiloni, the latter two no longer supported by their countries’ governments. It had already been confirmed that Spain’s Josep Borrell was leaving the Foreign Policy post.
The new Commission has been nominated but is not yet in office. Apart from the President herself and Kaja Kallas, all the others will still have to run the gauntlet of the European Parliament hearings: two weeks in October when we will most likely see attacks and offensives – based on party and nationality – which may lead to some figures dropping out, as has happened in the past (and not only for obvious unfitness). At particular risk is Hungary's Olivér Várhelyi , who got Health (and “Animal Welfare”), despite coming from a country that has succumbed to anti-vax propaganda, and whose portfolio would also include food safety, no longer under Agriculture, which is in solid EPP (Luxembourg) hands.
Originally published at https://ilmanifesto.it/a-sua-immagine-ununione-piu-nera-e-pro-business on 2024-09-18