Commentary
The centrist curse, in France and beyond
Macron has turned out to be a backstabber. His and the other middle-of-the-road parties enjoy a fair amount of parliamentary representation because of the generosity of the left-wing voters.
As we know, Macron is suffering from delusions of omnipotence. After taking a serious blow at the European elections, he dissolved the National Assembly, counting once again on the fragility of the left and the robustness of the “barrage républicain,” but it went badly for him.
What came out was an Assembly that is impossible to manage. The left unexpectedly rallied and won a third of the seats in the second round. The new Assembly is divided into three large parties, two of them decidedly mixed in composition, as presidentialism favors personalism. They are the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) and the middle-of-the-road group, namely Macron's party, the Republicans and other smaller groups. The third party is more cohesive, namely the nationalist and xenophobic right led by Marine Le Pen.
Macron has turned out to be a backstabber. His and the other middle-of-the-road parties enjoy a fair amount of parliamentary representation because of the generosity of the left-wing voters, who stood down in the second round. This is important to keep in mind. According to custom, he should have chosen a prime minister from the ranks of the NFP. He stubbornly refused to do so and instead set up a depressing rigmarole whose most likely outcome will be the full legitimization of the National Rally (RN). How, indeed, could the establishment that gave birth to Macron swallow a leftist government that would try to freeze pension reform?
First, the Barnier government was set up, a right-wing Republican who flirted discreetly with the RN, hoping to persuade the latter not to support a no-confidence vote together with the NFP. Then, after Barnier was sent packing with the help of the RN, which balked at the excessive austerity of the budget law and the postponement of pension reforms, Macron chose François Bayrou for prime minister, a figure classified as centrist but still aligned with the right, who, after less-than-honest negotiations with part of the left – the Socialists, Greens and others – in which he insisted on unreasonable terms, formed a government that is flirting even harder with the RN, especially on public order and immigration.
For the left, this might have been a fortunate development. The Socialists and others showed their responsible attitude, while Bayrou forced them to close ranks with the NFP. However, everyone is awaiting the next act of the drama. Either the government barely stays afloat – that’s as much as it can hope for – with the RN's blessing, or Macron might dissolve the Assembly once again in June. But the “republican bulwark” is unlikely to work again this time. History does repeat itself, and not just once. The worst is when it turns from farce to tragedy. The RN would pick up even more seats and be well on its way to government.
Italy’s case is paradigmatic, even though it saw a longer path from the farcical figure cut by Berlusconi to the hardline uncompromising right in power.
After Macron's neoliberal centrism failed, instead reawakening the Socialist Party and giving it a push to the left, the establishment might not be unhappy with the rise of the RN. The “extreme left” is nothing more than an invention of the media and political class. Mélenchon is bothersome and egocentric, but is not actually a dangerous subversive or a serious threat to private property. But even the limited reformism that the NFP stands for is enough to make neoliberalism with a hard-right flavor palatable. Le Pen, buoyed by Trump's success – from whom, however, she has kept her distance, as French nationalism is cut from a different cloth than the one practiced in Italy and other places – is promising the usual “supply-side politics” as a solution for the dramatic decline of the industrial system in France, together with outright war on street protesters and some extra persecution of migrants and immigrants. None of that will raise objections from the establishment.
Is there any alternative to the prospect of the rise of the RN? One can only be pessimistic. Voters are slow to reorient themselves. When they are more disappointed, more confused or more persuaded that there is no point to voting, they will abstain. And that scenario favors the RN, which can mobilize its own voters and also win some moderate voters, not only because it is good at exploiting the malaise of the downgraded classes, but also because of the impressive media apparatus put at its service by Vincent Bolloré.
The NFP has come together on public services and social and economic rights. The centrist constellation is partly open to discussion on rights, but on the whole it shares the supply-side politics of the nationalist right. And there are serious grounds to suspect that the centrists might prefer to let the nationalist right win over making a deal with the NFP, although the latter has stressed its readiness for compromise and gradualism. For Macron’s faction and the Republicans, talking about issues such as tax justice, public services, civil service, employee protections and state intervention to remedy industrial decline and the climate crisis is like pulling teeth.
The aversion of the “middle-of-the-road” parties against those who want to curb the neoliberal drift is a problem we are seeing throughout Europe, and in America as well. The European Union is demanding austerity to cut public debt. But something can still be done, and even a change of direction is possible.
Neoliberalism is a sinking ship. But there is a section of the left, which at one time submitted to neoliberalism’s tenets by moving to the center, that is still refusing to even mitigate it. One need only recall the fate of the SPD in Germany, whose promises of a course correction were thwarted by the red lines of the Liberals in their coalition. The same stalemate will come up again after the upcoming elections, which will most likely lead to a CDU-led Grand Coalition. In different forms, the same stalemate can be seen in the UK, while the gears are completely stuck in Italy as well: even the cautious second thoughts of a chunk of the PD are condemned as extremism, as its centrist component is putting up a lot of resistance. In 2022, by rejecting even a technical agreement, they gave the government of the country over to Meloni, knowing full well what disasters it would cause.
We have perhaps gone back to the ‘20s of the last century.
Originally published at https://ilmanifesto.it/francia-e-non-solo-la-maledizione-centrista on 2025-01-02