Reportage
Sheinbaum asks for calm, but Mexico is on edge these days
While the migration issue is likely to become explosive and dramatic at the same time, what scares Mexicans the most is the threat of tariffs on 25 percent of the products traded between the U.S. and Mexico.
The day after Trump's inauguration, fear was hanging over Mexico.
President Claudia Sheinbaum, in her usual morning press conference, was more tense than usual as she stressed that “we will always defend our sovereignty and our independence.” She added, as she had done in previous days: “We will always support the Mexicans living in the United States. But we must remain calm.” Keep calm and keep a cool head, she said.
The last words were probably not intended only for those in her audience. In the first hours of his administration, Trump already signed several executive orders to declare an emergency at the southern border, place Mexican organized crime groups on international terrorism lists, change the name of the Gulf of Mexico, and modify and rename the “Quedate en Mexico” (Stay in Mexico) program and the Free Trade Treaty.
Patrols and the militarization of the border have already begun, but the greatest worry on the south side of the U.S. border is the social impact that Trump's promised mass deportations might cause, as well as the possible tariffs and changes in the economic relationship between the two countries.
Mexican border states are setting up migrant camps, in a highly tense atmosphere: just a few days ago, the eviction of a migrant camp ended with the burning of mattresses and clothes in Chihuahua. Five reception points for at least 12,000 people are being set up in the same state. Mexico's nascent extreme right is trying to fan the flames, but it isn’t really managing to catch on, because the nationalist discourse – adopted now by Sheinbaum and before her by Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador – is crowding out their space.
While the migration issue is likely to become explosive and dramatic at the same time, what scares Mexicans the most is the threat of tariffs on 25 percent of the products traded between the U.S. and Mexico.
Mexico is entirely economically dependent on the U.S., and these tariffs could throttle an already fragile economy and set off an unprecedented crisis. The question now is whether tariffs and the inclusion of criminal groups on terrorism lists will be a real priority for Trump or just a promise made for effect.
On the criminal gangs issue, one might think that the “warning shot” would serve to open a dialogue between the two governments, which was skipped when the DEA unilaterally initiated the confrontation with the Sinaloa cartel and the arrest of General Cienfuegos. The two events completely changed the situation in Mexico and also accelerated Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s great expansion of the use of the military.
On the issue of tariffs, Sheinbaum in the press conference was restrained, tried not to answer any questions on the issue and repeated that it is necessary to be patient and not get ahead of ourselves.
These days will be decisive to see what shape these developments will take. What is certain is that so many things are in a state of flux in Mexico right now: there are those who are preparing for the worst and those who know that, as always, they will have to resist and find new solutions to turn things around, whether it’s about the events of the day or their whole lives.
Originally published at https://ilmanifesto.it/calma-e-cabeza-fria-ma-il-messico-ha-paura on 2025-01-22