Analysis
Opposing Trump’s ‘trade bullying’ could pay off for candidates around the world
After Canada, several countries in the Asia-Pacific region are called to the polls in the near future.
“These are not actions one does to a friend.” In Singapore, neutrality and diplomatic caution are dogma. But a few weeks ago, after Donald Trump's “Liberation Day,” Prime Minister Lawrence Wong no longer minced words in criticizing the tariffs imposed by the White House. This is a significant signal, due to the city-state embodying the vision of an influential segment of Asia. It is also important to note that Wong's anti-protectionist speech came at the start of the campaign ahead of next Sunday's elections.
After Canada, several countries in the Asia-Pacific region are called to the polls in the near future. Canada is a highly particular case, but Mark Carney's victory signals that opposing Trump's “trade bullying” may pay off.
The same dynamic could occur in Australia, which like Singapore will go to the polls on May 3. Until Trump's inauguration, polls gave a clear lead to the center-right Liberal Party, which has always been closer to Washington. Since the tariffs, the tide has turned and now Labor's Anthony Albanese, the outgoing premier, seems to be ahead. The latter has called tariffs “economic self-harm,” and in his bid for a second term he stressed the need to maintain autonomy from the U.S. Peter Dutton, the conservative candidate, has tried to distance himself from the White House but has been given the nickname “Temu Trump” on social media and is described by rivals as a “discount version” of the U.S. president.
In Singapore, Wong has adopted a line of unusually explicit criticism of the White House. The vote will be a key test for him, the first since he took over as head of government in place of the resigning Lee Hsien Loong, ending decades of rule by the city-state's founding dynasty. His People's Action Party has been in power throughout, but it lost a lot of support in the 2020 elections.
To regain those votes, or at least to stop the bleeding, Wong is casting himself as the only one who can provide strength and stability in the face of the new trade war. “There is a gathering storm and we are flying straight into turbulence,” the premier has said repeatedly. In the opposition’s view, he is exaggerating the possible impact of the tariffs to convince the public that a super-majority is needed to manage the economic risks. China would certainly not complain if Albanese continued in his post, who has been the protagonist of an almost unhoped-for normalization of relations with Beijing over the past year and a half.
No doubt, Xi Jinping is also rooting for Lee Jae-myung in South Korea. In the June 3 presidential elections, held early after the removal of Yoon Suk-yeol, the Democratic Party leader is a clear favorite. So far, he has taken a cautious line on the tariffs. And he had reason to do so: Lee is perceived as a radical candidate, so much so that he has been dubbed the “South Korean Bernie Sanders.” He has always proposed a re-balancing of the country’s foreign relations between the U.S. and China, as well as an attempt at dialogue with North Korea. To beat the pro-American conservatives, he also needs to make himself palatable to the center, which is looking for security after exports fell 2 percent in April – the first of the coming effects of tariffs, particularly hitting the crucial auto sector.
In the summer, Japan will vote to re-elect the upper house of parliament. Opponents of Premier Shigeru Ishiba, primarily those within the Liberal Democratic Party, see the vote as a chance for a breakthrough. Ultranationalist Sanae Takaichi is gearing up for battle: he has gone on a highly sensitive visit to Taiwan in recent days. From there, he called on partner countries (Australia, India and the E.U. countries) to form a “quasi-security alliance” to protect each other from turmoil, both on the trade and strategic level. “One cannot rely on a single country alone for protection,” Takaichi said in clear reference to the U.S., distancing himself from Ishiba's rush to negotiations with the latter, and marking the de facto launch of his campaign.
Originally published at https://ilmanifesto.it/il-bullismo-commerciale-del-tycoon-inquina-le-urne-anche-nel-pacifico on 2025-04-30