Commentary
NATO is seeking an emperor with clothes
We are at the end of an era in transatlantic relations, which may not necessarily be maintained under the same terms and formulas.
On July 10, there were two meetings in Washington, both crucial to Joe Biden's fate: the NATO summit and – politically even more important to the president – a meeting of Democratic congressmen called to discuss the issue of his nomination.
Cell phones were banned, so as not to allow leaks and allow the elected members of the Democratic Party to speak freely. Many of them will be fighting to keep their seats in the House on November 5, the most dramatic Election Day in recent American history.
Their views on Joe Biden's presidential run are also tied to his effect on their own campaigns. A Biden defeat could drag many Dem candidates down with him. Also, on July 10, there would be the usual weekly breakfast meeting of Dem senators, with the faltering tenant of the White House set to be the main topic.
It’s hardly an ideal time to gather the 38 heads of state and government of NATO in the capital, especially to celebrate the 75th anniversary of its founding. Their host is now a naked emperor, convinced, however, that the Atlantic invitees are still seeing him adorned in his usual attire and symbols of power, in the hope that their looks of admiration and adulation will overshadow the skeptical and nervous ones from increasingly reluctant Democrats, liberal pundits and donors.
Will Biden manage to stand up to the physical and psychological test of the summit? The question overshadows all the other issues of the moment, from the additional military and financial commitment required to assist Ukraine to the timing and manner of its entry into NATO, from the less-and-less-metaphorical threats of leaders such as Poland's Tusk – ready to “shoot down Russian rockets and drones in Ukrainian skies” – to the call for even more war spending by member countries, above the previous 2%.
In normal times, there would have been discussions about the new NATO leadership, which went from the hawkish Norwegian Stoltenberg to the unremarkable Dutch Rutte, and about what it will take for the Alliance to transform itself into an apparatus in permanent war mobilization.
But why even have the discussion now if on November 5 the current emperor will hand over the scepter to a successor who has called NATO “obsolete” and an unjustified cost to the American taxpayer? Biden's allies are well aware that their presence in Washington serves only as a test of whether or not Biden will make it through the remaining 115 days; moreover, they are aware that even if he wins re-election, he will soon have to hand over his duties to his VP.
In short, we are at the end of an era in transatlantic relations, which may not necessarily be maintained under the same terms and formulas, while two conflicts are underway in which the U.S. and NATO are massively (while not directly) engaged.
The day could also end with a positive result for Joe, who continues to be under heavy scrutiny. Among Democrats, resignation to him remaining the candidate seems to prevail, as there doesn’t seem to be a plan B that is feasible to implement on such short notice. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has said that the nomination question should be considered “closed.” But is it, really? Other Dems are skeptical. From the NATO side, there seems to be no interest at present in questioning the leadership of the alliance, even if it is personified by a lame duck.
All this may perhaps slow, but not change, the trajectory of the president-candidate's downfall, while Trump’s position only gets stronger.
The real estate tycoon could not have hoped for a better gift than to run against an opponent in Joe's condition. Four years ago, at this same time, Biden was ahead of him in the polls by ten points; now Trump is six points ahead. As David Axelrod, Barack Obama's strategist, pointed out on X: “Trump's not talking much about Biden's bad debate. Trump's campaign is not blitzing ads about it. And Lara Trump [Trump's daughter-in-law and GOP co-chair] said last week it would be an affront to democracy if Biden were not the nominee. Question: Why do you think they are uncharacteristically holding fire?”
Certainly, there will be no shortage of shots fired at the White House, coming from the news media, including the friendly outlets – especially the friendly outlets. The NYT, Washington Post, CNN, MSNBC will only go on in their investigations into Biden's actual health and fitness to run and publicizing stances in line with their own, decidedly on the side of replacing Biden as candidate.
There are only a few days left for such a move to be possible – or so the conventional wisdom goes. The popular comedian Jon Stewart joined the call for rebellion among the Democrats, recalling the very short election campaigns in France and the U.K.: is it really the case that the U.S. “can’t hold an election better” and not take advantage of the four months remaining? While the establishment is reluctant to make a move, there is great turmoil among the grassroots, which cannot be stopped and won’t be easily silenced.
Originally published at https://ilmanifesto.it/la-nato-alla-corte-dun-imperatore-che-non-ce on 2024-07-10