Analysis
Meloni wanted to be a bridge; she found herself in the crossfire
For Meloni's Conservatives, sovereignist but also pro-European, populist but hand in hand with the establishment, the space has shrunk significantly.
Being stuck in between can mean acting as a bridge, a prominent role that guarantees one an enviable return. But it can also mean finding oneself caught in a crossfire, a much less pleasant situation. Giorgia Meloni started off convinced she could play the part of the great mediator on the increasingly stormy stage of international politics. She is finding that she might instead end up caught in the middle with bullets flying from both sides, and that might be why she has closed herself off in an unprecedented silence – to the point that she was even absent from the Munich Conference.
We should extend her some understanding. Proposing to mediate with the gang in charge in Washington is one thing. Actually dealing with them is another story. They want to make Europe “great again,” but the recipe they have in mind to start the whole business is to reduce it to mush. Musk, a kind of Lex Luthor escaped from the comic books to wreak havoc on reality, harbors interplanetary dreams but in the meantime neither he nor his tycoon president ever take their eyes off their pocket books. The Old World will have to shell out for its defense, pay outrageous prices for energy and cough up the cash if it wants to access the world's richest market.
Meloni’s friend Ursula, from Brussels, has responded in kind to these threats, but there is a real possibility that it might be all bark, no bite, suggesting caution to the Rome premier. The higher-ups across the Atlantic already saw her with suspicion due to her flirtation with Biden. They have forgiven her for that, but it’s not certain that they would be as generous if she were to side against them again.
Ukraine is, all by itself, a thorn deeply stuck in her side. Switching from the protective umbrella of old Joe, who aimed at routing the Russian rogue at whatever cost, to that of the new president, whose only interest in Kyiv is getting the American billions back with interest, is something that can be done. But to perform such a pivot with ease and without losing face and credibility would be asking too much.
The position of the in-between, as Don and Elon might call it, is doubly at risk. Even shuttling between emboldened European sovereignism and the proper salons in Brussels is becoming a difficult task. The victory in the U.S. is not a bump on the road: it is a breakthrough on the front lines, and those profiting from it are those who have always shared the same political horizon and worldview with Trump: the Patriots of Orbán, Le Pen and Salvini. They didn’t have to wait for Vance's order to reopen the doors to the German AfD, which in about ten days will be the second-largest German party, ready for the assault. They were zealous enough to move in advance, readmitting the suspected neo-Nazis who were thrown out just a few months ago, in another historical era. They are the European right-wing, and for Meloni's Conservatives, sovereignist but also pro-European, populist but hand in hand with the establishment, the space has shrunk significantly.
Sooner or later – but much likelier sooner rather than later – the premier will have to decide, and that is precisely what she hates most of all. For now, she gets by through alternately sending opposing signals. She is the only leader of a major European country, the U.K. included, who has not defended the Hague Court from Trump's sanctions or protested the rough brutality with which the U.S. president has cut Europe out of negotiations with Putin. At the same time, she called and assured von der Leyen that Italy would play its part in the tariff war. She was loudly outraged by Moscow's vitriolic attack against Mattarella, whose words, moreover, were addressed to Putin but also meant for Trump. But one only has to listen to what her officials are saying to see that they no longer know what to do with the heroic Zelensky, and they would be celebrating if he were to get out of the way.
But this game is already wearing thin, and it may break down even sooner than expected. For a while longer and until the last useful moment, the Italian premier will do her utmost to keep up this approach: as halfway between Washington and Brussels as between Orbán and the Berlaymont Palace. Then, when her arm is twisted, she will have to choose, and it would take a great deal of optimism to bet that she will stand against a global right that, after all, looks very similar to her.
Originally published at https://ilmanifesto.it/il-lungo-silenzio-della-premier-che-resta-in-mezzo-al-guado on 2025-02-16