Analysis
Lebanon under fire seeks resolution to its political impasse
Israel is applying the “Dahieh doctrine,” which dates back to the 2006 war, when Israel had likewise decided to destroy civilian infrastructure on a large scale to pressure the government and the armed group.
East Beirut's Christian neighborhoods, mostly controlled by the right-wing Kataeb and Lebanese Forces parties, which have always been hostile to Hezbollah, are starting to display more and more banners. The unavoidable rebalancing of forces that is taking place in the region is having an effect within the country and on the rest of the active political groups. Up to this point, the changes have been peaceful.
However, there is a growing restless energy, and finding a solution to the long-term impasse on the presidency would be crucial. The post of president of the Republic, who is usually from one of the various Christian groups, has been left unfilled for two years. The last one, Michel Aoun, based his presidency on an underlying alliance with Hezbollah, openly going against the rest of the Christians.
The country is now ruled by an interim government which is very limited in what it can do. Deciding on a new president would certainly mean taking a clear stand. Once again, the name of General Joseph Aoun is doing the rounds (a cousin of the former president, but not aligned with him), the head of the Lebanese army, which is almost entirely funded by the United States.
Israel “will not allow Hezbollah to settle itself in these places [in southern Lebanon] in the future,” said Army General Herzi Halevi on Thursday evening. This was a very consequential statement, which points to the possibility of extending the conflict until this new objective is achieved. And this might mean the war will last much longer than Israel's announced “limited” invasion on Lebanese territory.
There were a dozen airstrikes in the night between Wednesday and Thursday alone. Beirut was hit in the Dahieh area, its southern suburb, as is now a common occurrence, and also in a place that is anything but obvious: Bachoura, a Shiite neighborhood close to the very central Martyrs' Square that features the famous blue-domed Al-Amin mosque.
The Islamic Health Committee, Hezbollah's first aid group, confirmed on Thursday morning that seven of its aid workers were killed in the airstrike that hit the organization's center. The Ministry of Health gave a death toll of nine dead and 14 wounded. In Bachoura, Zuqaq al Blat, Basta, and Zarif, all Shiite neighborhoods in the area, there has been a large influx of displaced civilians fleeing the south and Beka'a in the past few days, housed in schools or spaces used as reception centers. Medical and emergency personnel and civilians can end up among the targets.
In addition to being a militia and a major party, Hezbollah has a network of organizations which mostly employ civilians, offering medical, educational and care services as an alternative to the state, which has been facing a serious economic crisis; at the same time, the state has always had a strong neoliberal bent and has paid little attention to social issues.
Thursday’s airstrikes in the capital went on throughout the day, and hit Hezbollah's press office in South Beirut, among other targets. In the evening, bombs fell in Hay el-Sellom, in the Laylaki neighborhood and in Chiyah, in addition to an airstrike at 9 p.m. local time against a Hezbollah warehouse, according to Israeli army reports.
Israel is applying the “Dahieh doctrine,” which dates back to the 2006 war, when Israel had likewise decided to destroy civilian infrastructure on a large scale to pressure the government and the armed group.
The Lebanese army announced that one of its troops died in an airstrike on Thursday afternoon while taking part in relief operations in Taybeh (Marjayouneh) along with the Lebanese Red Cross, four members of which were wounded. A second soldier was killed in Bint Jbeil in another air raid that targeted a barracks and prompted the Lebanese army to respond to Israeli fire for the first time.
Israel's operation is becoming increasingly destructive against the physical locations where Hezbollah has a presence, both in the capital and the rest of the country: in the south, in the east, but also in places like Mayssara (Kesrouan), or Aley, where even the smallest presence of Shiite communities – which might possibly host minor figures of the “Party of God” – can become targets for raids. Thursday also saw heavy airstrikes in the south and in the Beka'a valley.
On Thursday evening, Hezbollah claimed that it had killed “17 Israeli officers and soldiers” on the border, after the eight the group claimed to have killed in the fighting on Wednesday. During their attempted incursions these days, the Israeli army has advanced only a few hundred meters and in many cases has been pushed back by the Shiite militias.
Lebanese Foreign Minister Abou Habib, still in New York, gave an interview to CNN in which he said a ceasefire deal had already been agreed upon shortly before Hassan Nasrallah was killed on Friday in an attack that tore through Haret Hrek and reduced six buildings to rubble.
According to Habib, an agreement mediated by Macron and Biden had been reached for a 21-day ceasefire: “We agreed completely. Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire but consulting with Hezbollah ... [The Americans and the French] told us that Mr. Netanyahu agreed on this and so we also got the agreement of Hezbollah on that, and you know what happened since then.” He said White House envoy Amos Hochstein had served as negotiator. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was in Beirut on Friday for talks with local officials.
At a press conference on Thursday afternoon, the Lebanese Health Minister said 127 children had been killed out of a total of 1974 dead so far. One million people have been displaced, creating a humanitarian crisis that the Lebanese state can hardly manage. At this point, support is also being provided by local and international NGOs, but if the conflict worsens, there is a danger of a collapse in civil order, even before the facilities give out.
Originally published at https://ilmanifesto.it/poco-prima-del-raid-nasrallah-aveva-detto-si-alla-tregua on 2024-10-04