Commentary
Kurdish society stuck between caution and hope
Kurdish activists are approaching the process with caution. Until political freedoms are guaranteed and restrictions on Kurdish parties are lifted, they say, “this will be peace from above, not peace from below.”
Is it peace or a mirage? That is the question following the total withdrawal of Kurdish guerrillas from Turkey and the subsequent retrenchment of Kurdish politics. With the official announcement of the complete withdrawal of Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) forces from Turkish territory to northern Iraq, one of the longest and most complex conflicts in the Middle East has seemingly come to an end.
The decision, coming from the Qandil Mountains and made public on October 26, 2025, marks not only the potential end of over 40 years of war but also the beginning of a new phase for Kurdish politics in Turkey and the region.
Founded in 1978 as a Marxist-Leninist liberation movement, the PKK has gradually transformed its strategy, shifting from armed struggle toward political and democratic means. In the statement read out in Qandil, the group explained that the withdrawal is in line with the decisions of its 12th congress and the appeal of its imprisoned leader, Abdullah Öcalan, for “a peaceful and democratic society.” Released images showed 25 fighters – eight of them women – crossing the Turkish border into defensive zones in northern Iraq.
The steps taken so far in this process are well known: a ceasefire declared on March 1, the decision to dissolve military structures in May, and a symbolic disarmament ceremony held in Sulaymaniyah in July. In its new statement, the group emerging from the PKK’s transformation speaks of the “definitive end of the military strategy” and calls for special laws ensuring democratic integration, freedom for Kurdish political parties and specific amnesty for its members. “We don't just want a general amnesty,” said leader Sabri Ok, “but rules that guarantee real political participation.”
However, the entire process is shadowed by a long history of mistrust. A previous peace attempt in 2015 collapsed into bloodshed, leading to the arrests of thousands of activists, journalists and deputies from the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), which was later forcibly dissolved. Many fear that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government might use this new process solely to gain international legitimacy without implementing genuine reforms.
Ankara, for its part, calls the withdrawal “a concrete step towards a Turkey without terrorism” and has established a 51-member parliamentary commission to develop a legal framework for the peace process. Turkish media report an imminent meeting between Erdoğan and a delegation from the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM, the successor to the HDP), which will then travel to the prison island of İmralı to consult with Öcalan.
Kurdish activists are approaching the process with caution. Until political freedoms are guaranteed and restrictions on Kurdish parties are lifted, they say, “this will be peace from above, not peace from below.” Meanwhile, Kurdish society, exhausted by decades of conflict, looks hopefully toward the possibility of a new political era.
For many Kurdish women, the transition holds a double meaning: the end of war and the start of a new battle for equality within the political sphere. The consequences of the withdrawal extend beyond Turkey’s borders. Baghdad is worried about an increased PKK presence in northern Iraq; Tehran eyes the growing influence of Öcalan-aligned Kurds in western Iran with suspicion; and in Syria, Kurdish forces allied with the PKK are working to consolidate their position against Ankara.
According to several Western analysts, if the transition process becomes a solid reality, it could alter the security balance along the Syrian and Iraqi borders. On the legal front, the future of Abdullah Öcalan and the fate of the disarmed fighters represent the most delicate tests. International experience shows that any transition lacking clear laws and independent monitoring is prone to failure.
If Ankara swiftly approves amnesty and integration laws and makes Öcalan’s release part of the political legitimization process, Qandil could transform from a symbol of war into one of peace. Otherwise, the risk of a return to violence remains real. In a Middle East still trapped in endless wars, the PKK’s decision to lay down its arms is a reminder of a simple but radical truth: no state can bolster its own stability by eliminating another. Peace – as the Kurdish women chant in Qandil – is born not from weapons, but from equality and justice.
Originally published at https://ilmanifesto.it/la-societa-curda-tra-prudenza-e-speranza on 2025-10-28