Analysis
In Europe, the socialists are backed into a corner as the right flexes its power
The right controls Europe. The Socialists and Liberals have grown openly nervous. They are threatening to pull support from the Commission if the courtship of the far right continues.
Investing more in defense at the expense of the welfare state – as Latvia admitted openly last week – and then “defending” Europe from migrants: the main issues now debated inside the European Union lie far outside the left’s cultural universe, a point confirmed by Thursday’s European Council agenda in Brussels.
Nor will the rotating EU Council presidency, which on Monday, July 1 passes to Denmark – one of the bloc’s few remaining social-democratic governments, the other major one being Spain – herald any change of course. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen plans to bring to Brussels the same tough line toward “unwanted” migrant inflows that helped her win in Copenhagen. Eurobarometer polling shows immigration has jumped from seventh to second place among Europeans’ concerns between 2020 and 2024.
The right controls Europe. The European People’s Party holds the largest share of commissioners and governs outright in twelve member states, even more if coalition partners are counted. In Parliament the EPP is the biggest group with 188 of 720 seats, yet tremors are multiplying inside the so-called “Ursula majority” – the EPP, Socialists & Democrats, and Liberals, with an outstretched hand to Greens and ECR to avoid surprises – that secured Ursula von der Leyen her second term. The EPP is flirting with the far right to block legislation it now finds bothersome, starting with pieces of the Green Deal that were once the flagship of von der Leyen’s first Council presidency.
The Socialists and Liberals have grown openly nervous. They are threatening to pull support from the Commission if the courtship of the far right continues, demanding from von der Leyen a “real and public commitment” to the agreed program. The clash could erupt over EU financing. But EPP leader Manfred Weber, who many believe wants to replace von der Leyen as Germany’s heavyweight, was blunt: “People need to see that if they don’t vote for Greens or Socialists, things will change at European level … that’s democracy,” he reportedly said.
From the Left group, vice-chair Martin Schirdewan said he was happy about the current “chaos,” calling the deregulation drive “catastrophic.” The rollback list is already long: looser car-emission limits, reallocated green funds, lighter rules for farming and industry, diluted deforestation controls, a shelved anti-greenwashing law. In the name of competitiveness, the EU is racing down the “simplification” path; an omnibus bill could pass by year-end. Von der Leyen is trying to have her cake and eat it, vowing to keep the Green Deal’s core while only trimming the edges, and comparing Europe’s progress to slow movers or to Trump’s exit from the Paris Agreement. She is still committed to the objective of net-zero CO₂ by 2050.
Yet the planned trajectory is unraveling. France is leading the charge against it, backed by Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Italy’s lukewarm stance: for Emmanuel Macron, simplification means decoupling the 2035 climate target from the 2040 one – a seemingly technical shift, but one of high political importance, which lets governments do less now and postpone tougher choices.
Bit by bit – through slow erosion and targeted power plays – the far right is settling into the control room. The cordon sanitaire has already fallen apart for ECR (Brothers of Italy, PiS), and a doorway has opened for the Patriots group (National Rally, Orbán’s Fidesz, the Lega), while only the Sovereign Nations group (AfD) is still shut out. On Thursday, it was Brothers of Italy who blocked ECR’s attempt to table a no-confidence motion against von der Leyen.
Originally published at https://ilmanifesto.it/socialisti-allangolo-minacciano-di-levare-il-sostegno on 2025-06-27