Analysis
French roulette: The right and far right join forces
Behind the scenes, there is the usual guerrilla warfare of the French far right, whose path has been overlapping with the Le Pen family history for the past 50 years.
The right has imploded. The announcement of early legislative elections, the bombshell dropped by Emmanuel Macron on the evening of his defeat in the European elections, already has a first casualty: Les Républicains, the heir party of Gaullism, has torn itself apart.
The party’s secretary, Eric Ciotti, announced on Wednesday afternoon that he intended to pursue to a “right-wing bloc” alliance, a “national bloc” with the National Rally. The agreement was confirmed in the evening by Marine Le Pen’s protégé, Jordan Bardella, who said there were several dozen Republican deputies willing to support it. Ciotti said the goal was “to preserve the LR group in the Assemblée Nationale,” which now has 61 deputies (and, in particular, to save his own seat, since the NR is polling above 30 percent in his constituency in Nice).
There was an immediate reaction by most of the leaders of the classical right, rejecting this electoral arrangement with the far right, which in Ciotti’s version could allow LR to return to power after 12 years in the wilderness. But it is a choice that clashes profoundly with the history of the movement which in 2002 ran Jaques Chirac to defeat Jean-Marie Le Pen with more than 80 percent of the vote.
The LR senators – who are not affected by the June 30-July 7 vote, which will only elect the Assemblée Nationale – are leading the charge: they’re accusing Ciotti of “lying” and “disloyalty.” François-Xavier Bellamy, head of the LR list at the European elections (where the party got only 7.2 percent), said an alliance with the far right “would be a pointless choice for the country” and that the likely victory of Le Pen’s party is “a threat.” According to him, such an agreement “would be Macron’s dream,” because it would confirm the president’s notion that “there is no alternative between him and the NR.”
The president of the Senate, Gérard Larcher, and the group leaders of LR senators and deputies, Bruno Retalleau and Olivier Marleix, have called for Ciotti’s resignation. The LR secretary defiantly rejected such a prospect and called for “the members to decide.” Philippe Gosselin, a LR deputy and historical figure of its neo-Gaullist wing, said that “the LR died today.”
Laurent Wauquiez, the hard-right president of the Rhône-Alpes-Auvergne region with presidential ambitions for 2027, likewise rejected an alliance with the extreme right and has decided to run for the legislature. A former LR vice-president said that “in June 1940, Ciotti would never have crossed the Channel,” meaning he would have been a collaborator with the Nazi regime. Valérie Pécresse, president of the Ile-de-France region, accused Ciotti of “selling his soul for a bowl of stew while pretending it’s in the country’s interests.” Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin, who comes from the right and intends to run in the elections, pulled no punches: “Ciotti is plunging the Gaullist family into disgrace.” Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire appealed to the LR deputies who would “refuse collaborationism,” and former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe said he was “extending a hand” to the LR deputies who are unwilling to succumb to the siren call of the far right.
Meanwhile, the prospect of an alliance between the extreme right parties has run into trouble. On Tuesday, Marion Maréchal, head of the Reconquête list in the European elections (5.5 percent), accused the NR of having “changed its position” right before their meeting. Marine Le Pen’s granddaughter had met Jordan Bardella at the NR headquarters with a view to an agreement for a future government. However, Bardella, in a “sudden and self-contradictory decision,” rejected her proposals, seemingly invoking previous attacks against the NR by Reconquête leader Eric Zemmour.
Behind the scenes, there is the usual guerrilla warfare of the French far right, whose path has been overlapping with the Le Pen family history for the past 50 years. Bardella sees Maréchal as a rival, while the Le Pens are using Marion to limit the already too-high ambitions of the young heir apparent.
According to the left-wing New Popular Front, “the announced LR-RN alliance marks a historic turning point in our country” and is a “confirmation of the continued drift of the French right’s outlook toward a xenophobic and deeply reactionary project.”
Macron, who postponed a press conference scheduled for Tuesday, still believes his call for early elections was “a good decision in the interest of the country.” He has made it clear that whatever the outcome for the legislature, he does not intend to resign, as the NR is already calling for.
The first polls have come in: they project the NR’s share dramatically increasing to between 235 and 265 deputies (from 88), but without getting an absolute majority, which would require 289 seats. Renaissance, the president’s party, would only get between 125 and 155 seats (down from 249 today); the left would hold more or less steady at 115-145 seats (down from 153). LR would drop to 40-55 seats. The result will certainly be different from that of the European election, which is run under a proportional system.
The two-round majoritarian electoral system for the legislative elections will amplify a dominant wave, but it also requires alliances from the first round in order to advance to the runoff, which will generally be between the top two candidates in each constituency. However, it’s also possible to have three- or four-candidate runoffs, as long as the candidates each got at least 12.5 percent of the votes of registered voters (not just those who actually voted).
Originally published at https://ilmanifesto.it/roulette-francese-le-pen-manda-in-tilt-i-repubblicani on 2024-06-12