Analysis
Elections in Liguria reflect a stable PD that still fails to build a coalition
Once again, Schlein's PD is the one for whom the bell tolls. It has no alternative than to take charge of its coalition: to start building it in earnest.
Looking at the numbers, it was a narrow defeat. But looking at the political importance of the vote in Liguria, it was a heavy defeat for the opposition.
The center-right was in a state of collapse. The Toti junta had been brought down by a judicial investigation which – with all the limitations that il manifesto was not shy to highlight – shed light on irresponsible management of the levers of power and structural corruption. Most of all, the crisis set off by the magistrates caused the tensions among the center-right coalition to blow up, with the embarrassment of dealing with an outgoing president who had pleaded guilty to crimes and the stabs in the back between the Lega, FI and FdI.
These tensions were visible at the polls as well, if one looks at the abysmal turnout recorded in the province of Imperia, a fiefdom of the right (and Scajola), without which the right-wing candidate, Bucci, would have won much more easily at the regional level. But he won anyway, in a race for which very few turned out overall: far fewer than half the eligible voters went to the polls, which has now become depressingly common.
At the same time, Bucci lost in Genoa, the city he has been running as mayor, and which will now have to go back to the polls for a runoff. It’s a clear negative verdict on his time as first citizen, but not exactly a surprise, given that the center-left in the city had also come out on top in the recent European elections – which, throughout the region, had shown a center-left in better shape than the center-right. Which only makes Sunday’s defeat heavier.
We are talking about a single region and an election in which less than half a million voters participated, so every conclusion about it is relative. But the way this defeat came about is a warning sign for the entire opposition, one which also applies at the national level. First, the inability of the center-left to show up as united (whether or not it truly is) is obvious. The right, which is also shot through with all kinds of rifts, is able to do that. Even the composition of the center-left alliance for the election was the result of threats and ultimatums. Renzi was kept out because the PD agreed to Conte's veto and red lines, but even if the victory was decided by a few thousand votes, that doesn’t mean Italia Viva would have been of any help. This is proven by the fact that the centrists in Andrea Orlando's camp, essentially indistinguishable from Renzi in terms of political positions, did very poorly.
As if the bad start wasn’t enough, the center-left also sent off negative signals during the election campaign.
For this, the blame mainly falls on the Five Star Movement and its president, who saw fit to force a break with founder Beppe Grillo in the most decisive days for the fate of the region (where Grillo lives and where he is most well-known). There are many reasons to be critical of the way the founder of the Movement wants to maintain his grip on what was once his offspring, whether for political or economic reasons. But it’s not news to anybody that the Five Star Movement was born as a proprietary party and that Grillo has the temperament of a father figure with an iron fist: that was on display when he decided to install the then-unknown Giuseppe Conte as Prime Minister. Like with the previous regional elections (Sardinia, Abruzzo, Basilicata and Piedmont), Liguria has shown that Conte cares far less about the fight for local government in the territories than he is willing to stand the PD. And he is very willing to sacrifice his chances of winning the regional elections to jockey for position in view of the national elections. Obviously, and despite the series of defeats suffered by the Movement, he still imagines he can play the role of aspiring leader on the national stage.
In any case, it was a PD candidate who lost the elections in Liguria (something we have seen before: in the last year, the only center-left victory in the regions came when they ran a Five Star candidate). But Schlein's party didn’t have a bad result: it basically kept the level of support from the European elections, despite the higher abstention. Percentage-wise, it did even better than in June and in the 2022 national elections. The PD was the top party in the region, with twice as many votes as the Prime Minister's party, Fratelli d'Italia.
The difference is that Fratelli d'Italia has a coalition, while the PD only has fellow travelers. One data point shows it clearly: in Liguria, the largest party of the center-right (FdI) was allied with four other groups that got over 2 percent and had on average twice as many votes as them. Meanwhile, the largest party of the center-left (the PD) had only three groups as allies that managed to exceed 2 percent, and on average it got 5.5 times their number of votes.
The imbalance is obvious. While on the right there is a coalition of forces more or less comparable in strength, on the other side there is a large force surrounded by a number of small forces. A “tree with some bushes around it,” indeed: while Conte hates that description, it’s the numbers that paint that picture. Of course, the results of the smaller forces varied: the 6.2 percent with which the Green Left Alliance kept up their good result at the European elections is quite different from the 4.6 percent that marked the collapse of the Five Stars.
So, once again, Schlein's PD is the one for whom the bell tolls. It has no alternative than to take charge of its coalition: to start building it in earnest, to manage the differences in position (which are entirely normal), to find common ground. In short, to do the work of politics. Without letting issues drag on endlessly, pretending not to see the pitfalls and then deciding in the end based on the last of the emotional twists and turns, or in favor of those who shout the loudest. Or, rather, there is actually an alternative: that of continuing to lose, even against a right-wing that is showing up at its worst. In Liguria as in Rome.
Originally published at https://ilmanifesto.it/per-non-continuare-a-perdere on 2024-10-29