Analysis
COP30 kicks in a burning climate
The question scientists and environmentalists are asking remains the same: will we continue to set targets that are not met and announce measures that remain only on paper?
COP30 marks a return to Brazil, where it all began in 1992 with the Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit, the first time environmental and sustainable development issues were addressed at the global level. The United Nations Climate Change Conference, taking place in Belém from November 10-21, faces the difficult task of relaunching international cooperation on environmental policy.
The choice of the Amazonian city as the host has high symbolic value and was strongly advocated by President Lula da Silva to reassert Brazil's leading role in the fight against climate change. The last three COPs (COP27 in Egypt, COP28 in the UAE, and COP29 in Azerbaijan) were held in states whose economies are based largely on fossil fuels and ended with disappointing results, failing to agree on effective measures or binding commitments to counter the planet's rising temperature. We are seeing the paradox of companies whose primary interests lie in oil and gas production putting themselves forward to lead the energy transition.
Nevertheless, climate conferences are an important tool for identifying actions that would lead to commitments from states to combat climate change – whose effects are being seen most clearly in the countries of the Global South, which bear the least responsibility for emissions.
What can we reasonably expect from COP30? Ten years after the 2015 Paris Agreement, which was signed by 177 countries and represented the high-water mark of global joint action on the climate, we are facing a crisis of multilateral politics. This crisis has affected all sectors, from trade wars to the management of armed conflicts. The year 2025 also marks a crisis in climate multilateralism with the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement, the country that has contributed most to greenhouse gas production over the decades.
The Trump administration's climate denialism and disengagement are destined to have a dramatic impact in both the short and long term, calling all climate goals into question. The European Union's own backsliding on environmental issues is also set to negatively affect both international agreements to stop global warming and the measures needed to limit the effects of rising temperatures. The president of COP30, Brazil's André Corrêa do Lago, has said he is aiming for a compromise that would commit countries to laying out new climate plans and launching concrete initiatives to reduce emissions by 2035, moving from the negotiation phase to implementation. The question scientists and environmentalists are asking remains the same: will we continue to set targets that are not met and announce measures that remain only on paper?
The Paris Agreement fixed the goal of limiting the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The fact is that in recent years, the climate crisis has accelerated at a rate that has surprised researchers. According to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), the planet is warming faster than expected. While in 2021 it was believed the 1.5°C threshold would be reached in 2040, two years later the date was revised to 2030. But the World Meteorological Organization has now certified that 2024 was the hottest year on record, with the global average temperature already showing a rise of 1.6°C.
Scientists are unwilling to draw hasty conclusions, as they must first assess whether the 2024 value might be an outlier. But if the trend is confirmed in 2025 and the years to come, we may be facing the effects of a true “climate collapse.” In any case, to remain within the Paris Agreement's threshold, greenhouse gas emissions would need to be cut by 65% by 2035 – a reduction six times greater than currently planned. Almost all countries, including the European Union, are seriously behind on their national adaptation plans, which makes it difficult to increase the pace of emission cuts. Meanwhile, the rearmament race underway in Europe and elsewhere is set to absorb enormous financial resources, diverting them from the very sectors that should be working to mitigate the climate crisis.
Climate finance is one of the central themes of COP30, as it is the key to adopting the climate justice measures that countries in the Global South continue to demand. COP29 in Baku produced a proposal to allocate $300 billion per year by 2035 to finance adaptation measures in low-income countries. How this goal will be achieved and by what criteria these resources will be allocated remains to be discussed.
The other hot-button issue is the elimination of fossil fuel subsidies. According to the International Monetary Fund, these subsidies (both direct and indirect) reached a value of $7 trillion in 2022. All G20 countries, responsible for 80% of greenhouse gas emissions, continue to heavily subsidize the fossil fuel sector, led by China, the United States, Russia, the European Union and India. No previous conference has set a firm deadline to end this financing. We will see if COP30 is able to take any steps in this direction.
Fossil fuels are the primary cause of climate change, accounting for 70% of global emissions, yet the focus continues to be on expanding the oil sector. New extraction projects are multiplying across the globe. This is happening even in Brazil, where new licenses for exploration have been granted in the Amazon basin 175 kilometers from the coast, with the aim of increasing oil production. This shows the most glaring contradiction in President Lula da Silva's environmental policy, as every new extraction plan is incompatible with the goal of containing climate change. The commitment to “phase out” fossil fuels, which appeared for the first time in the final report of COP28 in Dubai, is merely a declaration of intent, with no set timeline. In recent months, however, one initiative has gained support and could be discussed at the conference: the proposal for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty.
We will see if it shows up in the final report. But in Belém, the “trap” of biofuels is ready to be sprung. Biofuels are being proposed as an ecological solution for decarbonizing transportation. Brazil's own interests in the field will bring these fuels to the forefront, with proposals to quadruple global production by 2035. However, what is actually needed is to halt their expansion, as this is a failed climate strategy: 90% of biofuels come from crops that compete with food production. Furthermore, when their entire life cycle (from cultivation to combustion) is considered, they generate 16% more emissions than fossil fuels, as shown by a report by the NGO Transport & Environment.
Brazil’s indigenous communities, who are fighting to defend the Amazon rainforest and their way of life, want to play an active role in this conference, stressing once again that “there are no climate solutions without indigenous peoples and territories.” This has given rise to a proposal which is expected to be presented for the first time with Brazil's support: the establishment of a $125 billion Tropical Forest Forever fund to finance countries that safeguard their forest heritage.
Originally published at https://ilmanifesto.it/cop30-al-via-sul-clima-che-brucia on 2025-11-06