Analysis
China presents an anti-MAGA program for global stability
Two key words emerged from the 32-page government work report presented at the start of the “two sessions” by Premier Li Qiang: stability and security. As if intended specifically to offer an image that is the polar opposite of the unpredictability of the Donald Trump-led White House.
“China stands ready to work with other members of the international community to promote an equal and orderly multipolar world and universal and inclusive economic globalization.” In Beijing, the annual plenary of the National People's Congress opened with what seemed to be a call for an indispensable distancing from the United States. Two key words emerged from the 32-page government work report presented at the start of the “two sessions” by Premier Li Qiang: stability and security. As if intended specifically to offer an image that is the polar opposite of the unpredictability of the Donald Trump-led White House.
One element of stability was the GDP growth target, set at “around 5 percent” just as it was last year. This is a more cautious estimate than the quick race to growth of a few years ago, confirming that the focus is now on quality rather than speed. Then again, Beijing has long aimed to transform its development model to make it less dependent on the outside world, increasing the weight of what Xi Jinping calls “new productive forces.” These include chips, artificial intelligence, and the green technology industry, which are all given ample space among the goals for 2025, the last year covered by the five-year plan launched in 2021.
But in the meantime, immediate needs must be met. The government admits there are a number of problems. “The foundation for sustained economic recovery and growth in China is not strong enough. Demand is weak and consumption is stagnant. Some enterprises face difficulties in production and operations, and late payments remain a major problem. There are pressures on job creation and income growth,” the report says. In response, “more proactive” policies are promised. In particular, the budget deficit will be raised from 3 percent to 4 percent of GDP, for the first time in quite a while. A total of 1.3 trillion yuan of very long-term special treasury bonds will be issued, 300 billion more than in 2024, with an additional 500 billion to support large state-owned commercial banks in recapitalization and 4.4 trillion for local governments. At the same time, the first monetary policy easing in 14 years is coming. The increase in government spending is intended to secure troubled sectors such as real estate, but also to expand research and development funds in an effort to accelerate the pursuit of technological self-sufficiency. This is a goal China wants to achieve in order to shield itself from sanctions and supply chain restrictions imposed by Washington.
Another element that is holding steady is the military budget, in terms of its growth rate, which for 2025 will remain at 7.2 percent, as in the previous two years. Over the past decade, the country’s total military spending has doubled to $246 billion. This is more than four times the amount spent by Japan, but still only a third of what the U.S. spends. For 2025, the government is calling for enhancing military training and combat readiness, but also intensifying the implementation of “major projects” related to defense. For instance, the new and vast general military command for times of crisis, under construction near Beijing, but also the development of nuclear-powered aircraft carriers.
Li reiterated China's intentions to “firmly advance” its pursuit of “reunification” with Taiwan, although compared to 2024 his tone did not signal any greater urgency, and in fact seemed slightly less hardline. Here as well, we might be seeing signs of the Trump effect.
Originally published at https://ilmanifesto.it/stabilita-globale-si-presenta-la-cina-anti-maga on 2025-03-06